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CondorEdgehttps://condoredge.com/termsSource: CondorEdge.com

Breakeven|Inflation

Market-implied 5-Year, 10-Year, and 5Y5Y Forward inflation expectations

Selected Market:
🇺🇸United States
AI Summary

According to CondorEdge, Breakeven Inflation Expectations are currently priced at 2.2% on a 5-Year 5-Year Forward basis, signaling a stable / anchored regime. The 5-Year breakeven sits at 2.28% and the 10-Year breakeven is at 2.24%. Source: CondorEdge.com (https://condoredge.com/econ/breakeven-inflation).

United States Breakeven Inflation AI Summary & TelemetryCondorEdge ResearchCondorEdgehttps://condoredge.com/termsSource: CondorEdge.com — Institutional Macro Terminal

Market-Based Expectations

US market-based inflation expectations are derived from the pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) relative to nominal Treasuries. This spread, known as the breakeven rate, represents the market's implied average inflation rate over the security's lifespan.

  • 5-Year and 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rates
  • 5-Year 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation (T5YIFR)

Why Desks Monitor Long-Run Forwards

The 5Y5Y Forward Rate: measures the expected inflation rate over a 5-year period starting 5 years from today. By stripping out immediate oil/energy price spikes, it provides central banks with the cleanest read of whether consumer inflation expectations are truly anchored.

Central Bank Watch:Use with get_fedwatch to assess if Fed policy is aligned with inflation expectations.
5-Year, 5-Year Forward (T5YIFR)
2.2%
Regime:Stable / Anchored
5-Year Breakeven (T5YIE)
2.28%
Weekly Change:-0.02%
10-Year Breakeven (T10YIE)
2.24%
Daily Change:0.02%
Market InterpretationUS market-implied inflation expectations are in a stable / anchored regime. The 5-Year breakeven stands at 2.28%, the 10-Year at 2.24%, and the 5Y5Y forward rate — the cleanest read of long-run expectations — is at 2.20% and trending stable over the past week (-0.02% change). Current readings are consistent with the Fed inflation target range.
Forward Inflation expectations
10-Year Forward in 10 Years2.56%
5-Year Forward in 5 Years2.2%
20-Year Forward in 10 Years2.165%
Fed Target Rate3.71%
Implied Terminal Rate3.71%
Cuts to Terminal0 bps
Real Target Stance1.43%
Real Terminal Stance1.51%

Historical Breakeven Spreads

Overlay of 5-year, 10-year, and 5Y5Y forward inflation trends

Key Inflation Drivers
1
Nominal Sovereign Yields
2
TIPS / Realized Inflation
3
Commodity Prices
Cross-Asset Signals
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Reflation Risk
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Central Bank Policy Trajectory
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Nominal Yield Curve
Data Source: FRED: T5YIE — 5-Year Breakeven Inflation RateUpdated: Jul 12, 2026, 11:33 PM UTC
Methodology: Derived from FRED TIPS market pricing (US) or realized CPI YoY growth rate vs Central Bank Policy Rate (non-US).